In its annual holiday retail forecast, Deloitte anticipates a 3.5% to 4.6% increase in holiday retail sales for 2023. This projection translates to holiday sales totaling between $1.54 trillion and $1.56 trillion from November to January. For context, in 2022, holiday sales during the same period saw a 7.6% growth.
In addition, Deloitte forecasts a substantial rise in e-commerce sales, projecting growth rates of 10.3% to 12.8% year-over-year for the 2023-2024 holiday season. As a result, e-commerce holiday sales are expected to reach a range of $278 billion to $284 billion this season.
Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, commented in a press release: “We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season. Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season.”
