In a recent analysis titled “Diamond Analytics Forecast: When Will Lab-Grown Diamond Sales Be the Majority?” on Edahn Golan Diamond Research & Data, diamond analyst Edahn Golan analyzes the LGD market, and when it is forecasted to outpace the natural diamond market.
Golan starts by explaining about the inevitability of the LGD market surpassing the natural market, “as natural diamonds are a finite resource, and over time, their supply will dwindle.” This, he says, will happen “faster than most of us imagine”. Here are some of his key reasons for this analysis.
First, Golan says that about half of global consumer demand for diamonds comes from the US, and about 22% of all jewelry sales by US jewelry retailers are sales of loose diamonds – worth about $8.6 billion in annual sales to consumers in the US in 2022.
Selling loose diamonds to retailers, as opposed to selling to jewelry manufacturers, he explains, “is an exceptionally important sales channel” for two main reasons: the volume is considerable, and it is the main sales channel for the larger, better, and pricier diamonds.
Second, based on data collected by Tenoris, the share of lab-grown diamond sales has only increased in the past three years.
By value, the share of loose lab-grown diamonds doubled from an average of 8.3% in 2020 to 17.3% in 2022. The value share of loose lab-grown diamonds tripled from 7.2% in January 2020 to 22.9% this past February.
Then, Golan veers into a guesstimate as to when the value of loose lab-grown diamond sales will match or surpass that of loose natural diamonds. He talks about unit sales of loose LGDs, and predicts (or guesstimates) that “by May of this year, 50% of loose diamonds sold by American jewelry retailers are expected to be lab-grown diamonds. In addition, more than half of consumer purchases of these goods are expected to be lab-grown diamonds.
From then on, Golan says, “lab-grown diamonds will only capture a more substantial share.” Bottom line, he says, “while we may be far away from the day when lab-grown diamond sales are 50% of all diamond sales […] this is already a reality, especially when measured by the number of diamonds sold.
Read the full analysis here.
