In a recent article on Solitaire, an B2B gem and jewelry magazine published by India’s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky discusses what the natural diamond supply might look like in 2030.
According to Zimnisky, through the end of the decade, diamond supply is “expected to remain within an annual range of 115 and 125 million carats, [which is] down over 20% from as recently as 2017.” Over the last five years, several legacy mines – led by the iconic Argyle mine – have reached depletion, leading “to a trend of sliding diamond output […]”.
More mines are expected to close or cease conventional mining in the next 5 years, including Koffiefontein, Diavik, Almazy-Anabara and Zarnitsa.
Therefore, Zimnisky says, looking to next decade, “diamond supply will likely remain limited yet continue to be supported by a core cohort of world-class mines.” According to his estimates, global production in 2030 is forecasted at approximately 115 million carats per year –”the lower bound of forecasted production for most of the 2020’s.”
The world’s notable mines – Jwaneng and Orapa in Botswana – will “likely continue to be the industry’s key asset” and are forecast “to contribute to ~20% of global natural diamond supply by volume and as much as 25% by value in 2030.”
According to the analyst, De Beers’ Venetia mine in South Africa “is also expected to be a key contributor” as its current expansion project “is forecasted to take Venetia’s mine life through at least the mid-2040’s.” De Beers’ marine operations in Namibia and the Gahcho Kué mine in Canada will also “continue to significantly contribute to global supply into the 2030’s.”
Alrosa is still very much in the game as well, and is “expected to continue producing a leading portion of global supply into next decade” with its Jubilee, Udachny, International, Botuobinskaya, Aikhal, Verkhne-Munskoe, Arkangelskaya and Karpinskogo mines.
Zimnisky goes on to analyze the production a decade from now from mines such as the Cullinan and Finsch mines in South Africa.
Read the full analysis here.
