The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that holiday retail sales during November and December will rise 3.8%-4.2% year-on-year to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion. According to IDEX Online, there has been an average rise of 3.7% over the past five years.
The NRF further said that online and other non-store sales (included in the total) are predicted to rise 11%-14% to between $162.6 billion and $166.9 billion. In 2018, that figure totaled $146.5 billion.
Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, commented: “The US economy is continuing to grow and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth. Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric […]”. Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist, added: “There is significant economic unease, but current economic data and the recent momentum of the economy show that we can expect a much stronger holiday season than last year. Job growth and higher wages mean there’s more money in families’ pockets, so we see both the willingness and ability to spend this holiday season”.
